Sales Forecasting System for Newspaper Distribution Companies in Turkey

Gencay İncesu, Barış Aşıkgil, Müjgan Tez

Abstract


Newspapers are like goods with a shelf life of one day and they have to be distributed daily basis to the sales points. A problem that most newspaper companies encounter daily is how to predict the right number of newspapers to print and distribute among distinct sales points. The aim is to predict newspaper demand as accurately as possible to meet customer need with minimum number of returns, missed sales and oversupply. This makes it necessary to develop a short-term forecasting system. The data taken from one of the largest distribution companies in Turkey is time dependent. Therefore, time series analysis is used to forecast newspaper circulation. In this paper, the newspaper sales system is examined for Turkey. Various types of forecasting techniques which are applicable to newspaper circulation planning are compared and a nonlinear approach for returns is applied.


Keywords


Newspaper Circulation, Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, Nonlinear Approach, Time Series Forecasting

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18187/pjsor.v8i3.539

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Title

Sales Forecasting System for Newspaper Distribution Companies in Turkey

Keywords

Newspaper Circulation, Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, Nonlinear Approach, Time Series Forecasting

Description

Newspapers are like goods with a shelf life of one day and they have to be distributed daily basis to the sales points. A problem that most newspaper companies encounter daily is how to predict the right number of newspapers to print and distribute among distinct sales points. The aim is to predict newspaper demand as accurately as possible to meet customer need with minimum number of returns, missed sales and oversupply. This makes it necessary to develop a short-term forecasting system. The data taken from one of the largest distribution companies in Turkey is time dependent. Therefore, time series analysis is used to forecast newspaper circulation. In this paper, the newspaper sales system is examined for Turkey. Various types of forecasting techniques which are applicable to newspaper circulation planning are compared and a nonlinear approach for returns is applied.


Date

2012-07-01

Identifier


Source

Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research; Vol 8. No. 3, 2012



Print ISSN: 1816-2711 | Electronic ISSN: 2220-5810